Pundit Danny Murphy highlights defining factor in Burnley & Leeds United's Premier League survival race
Burnley’s Premier League fate has been discussed by pundits.
Danny Murphy has made a grim prediction regarding Burnley’s chances of surviving in the Premier League this season.
The Clarets were promoted as Championship runners-up, earning 100 points and conceding just 16 goals in 46 matches. Burnley have made a solid start to the 2025/26 season, with Saturday’s 1-1 draw against Nottingham Forest taking them to four points from five games.
And it could have been even better for Scott Parker’s men, who only fell to defeat against Manchester United and Liverpool in the final minutes of second-half stoppage time.
Danny Murphy makes grim Burnley prediction
Despite Burnley’s promising start to the campaign, Danny Murphy is not convinced they have what it takes to avoid an immediate relegation. Each of the last six promoted teams have dropped straight back into the Championship at the first time of asking, but all three this campaign have been competitive to start the season.
But according to Murphy, it’s Sunderland who stand the best chance of survival from the current crop, with a lack of firepower possibly undoing Burnley and Leeds. “I still think Leeds and Burnley will go,” Murphy told talkSPORT.
“I think the biggest problem for Burnley and Leeds is firepower,” Murphy continued, “I agree with what we talked about earlier. I think all the newly promoted sides doing well is great for the Premier League. “I’d like to see them all stay up, actually. But I don’t think it’ll be the case. Burnley struggled in front of goal. Leeds had only scored one, and that was a penalty, until Wolves kept giving them goals the other day. I like Leeds. Calvert-Lewin is a handful; that’s a great goal he got.”
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Do Burnley score enough goals?
Murphy may well have a point. Burnley have scored just five goals from their opening five Premier League games this season, with only four sides netting fewer - one of which is Leeds. And the Clarets have been lucky to even net that many goals, with those strikes coming from 4.17 xG and 42 shots - bottom and second-bottom of the Premier League, respectively.
2025/26 Premier League expected goals
- Man Utd (9.98)
- Chelsea (9.35)
- Crystal Palace (8.75)
- Arsenal (8.46)
- Man City (8.43)
- Liverpool (7.73)
- Bournemouth (7.63)
- Brighton (7.52)
- Everton (6.74)
- Tottenham Hotspur (6.39)
- Fulham (6.22)
- Brentford (6.12)
- West Ham (5.8)
- Nottingham Forest (5.43)
- Sunderland (4.95)
- Newcastle (4.93)
- Leeds (4.61)
- Wolves (4.39)
- Aston Villa (4.31)
- Burnley (4.17)
Scott Parker’s side have been heavily reliant on goalkeeper Martin Dubravka, who has made 18 saves so far this season - second only to Tottenham’s Guglielmo Vicario (19) and including seven against Nottingham Forest at the weekend.
Burnley take on Cardiff City in the EFL Cup on Tuesday, while they’ll look to improve their attacking output in challenging away Premier League ties against Manchester City and Aston Villa, before hosting Leeds.