What history tells us about the chances of Burnley, Luton Town & Sheffield United winning on the opening day

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Burnley have certainly got their work cut out on the opening day of the 2023/24 Premier League season as they come up against Manchester City.
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Pep Guardiola’s all-conquering treble winners make the trip to Turf Moor for the top flight’s curtain raiser, with the game being televised live on Sky Sports on Friday, August 11.

As if facing the reigning Premier League, Champions League and FA Cup champions wasn’t bad enough, the statistics aren’t on Burnley’s side either.

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According to research undertaken by OLBG, sides promoted from the Championship are most likely to experience defeat on the opening day, while just 19.5 per cent of teams win at the start of the season.

It means fewer than one in five newly-promoted teams taste victory on the opening day of the season – and never have all three triumphed.

The stats show that in the 92 matchday one games played by promoted sides, just 18 have resulted in a win for the new-boys.

Instead, defeat is the most likely of results awaiting the expectant players and fans of promoted teams – with 52 losses over that period (56.5 per cent).

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Kompany's men will have their work cut out against Man City on the opening dayKompany's men will have their work cut out against Man City on the opening day
Kompany's men will have their work cut out against Man City on the opening day

The sobering record will bring a dose of realism to this year’s trio of clubs climbing up to the top level, Burnley, Sheffield United and Luton.

The Clarets, however, will feel a lot more optimistic about their chances in the top flight after the emphatic nature of their Championship title win.

But over the 31 years of the Premier League, not once has it happened that all three sides moving up have tasted victory in their opening match.

Just twice have two teams won – with a six-point haul being the highest on record for the new-boys. Two years ago Brentford beat Arsenal and Watford saw off Aston Villa, equalling the return in 1997/98 when Bolton and Crystal Palace secured wins.

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Last year two of the sides went unbeaten, as Bournemouth beat Villa and Fulham secured a draw at home to Liverpool. But Nottingham Forest tasted defeat at Newcastle.

Promoted teams on the opening weekend

Played: 92

Won: 18

Drawn: 22

Lost: 52

Total Points: 76

Points-per-game: 0.82

Win Percentage: 19.5 per cent

Loss Percentage: 56.5 per cent