Scott Parker discusses Burnley's use of stats, underlying data and trusting his own 'instinct'

That will be the question Scott Parker is asking himself as he prepares his Burnley side for this weekend’s trip to Millwall.

Despite back-to-back draws, Burnley’s current form is very good. They’re unbeaten in nine and they sit in second place in the Championship.

But looking beyond the headline numbers and you’ll see a Clarets side that are struggling for goals, scoring just eight times in their last 10 games. Defensively, however, they’ve been imperious, shipping just five goals in 12 games.

Everyone’s favourite stat, Expected Goals (xG), suggests Burnley have created only the 13th most quality chances in the Championship so far this season. Keep that up for the whole season and Parker’s side might struggle to maintain their lofty position.

But as always, context is key. While Parker and his coaching staff will use data to inform their decision making, it doesn’t always tell the full story.

“There’s certain elements of stats you can relate to as a coach in terms of how you’re developing as a team,” Parker said.

“At the same time, it’s where you’re getting them from, because there’s totally different forums on how one judges a goalscoring opportunity, for example, and how they rate that goalscoring opportunity in an xG. It can be very different from one platform to the other, so it depends where you’re getting the stats from and being consistent with it.

“For sure, the way football has gone…when I started playing it was just shots on target and it was easily relatable, whereas now there’s a vast amount of numbers that we’re constantly using to give us some understanding of where we are as a team and where we need to improve.

“Some are helpful, some may not be. Duels for instance, what counts as a duel in a stat can vary, so there are certain ones that are pretty inconsistent and you don’t relate to because you don’t know what their remits are.”

While Parker admits data can sometimes tell you a different story to what you saw in real time, nine times out of 10 he trusts his own instinct.

He added: “Sometimes your instinct is a little bit off, that can be true. How you read a game in the moment can sometimes be a little bit different, but the majority of the time that’s not the case. You’re normally going with your instinct and that’s normally the one that is correct.

“You’re looking at those numbers and how you feel about the game and the numbers will relate to that a little bit. Normally, nine times out of 10, how you feel about a game or the swing of a game – should we have beaten QPR at the weekend? – that feeling is normally pretty consistent.

“Nine times out of 10 you don’t need stats, the feeling is the feeling. Take the QPR game, take away the second-half where there weren’t many clear-cut chances, but in the first-half we got into some really good areas and they made some last-ditch blocks to prevent goals.

“We got into some good areas and probably lacked that final bit of quality in the final third, which was the reflection in game and probably the reflection afterwards as well.

“I always use the analogy of a boxing match, but it was a match that was going to end in the ninth or the 10th. You go in there wanting to try and get the job done early but that wasn’t the case. In that moment you’re jabbing away, having real control and you’re trying to finish the match around the ninth and the 10th.

“The opposition, fair play to them, they were a little bit bruised and battered and we didn’t manage to finish that off and the draw comes at the end of it.

“There were still a number of positives from the weekend though, I stand by that. There was some real good quality, but there were also some other bits that we need to improve on, that was pretty evident. But we will keep nudging away.”