Probability model predicts Burnley’s Championship finish

Burnley will fall short in the newly-expanded Championship play-offs next season.

That’s according to a newly-released supercomputer, which has predicted how the 2026/27 Championship season will play out following yesterday’s fixture reveal.

The Parimatch UK Sportsbook Supercomputer is a probability model, not determined by human predictions or bias.

It estimates the outcome of each fixture in a season based on the strength of the teams involved based on a number of factors including player quality, manager quality, historical trends, their form during the 2025/26 season, betting market fluctuations and other variables.

A level of randomness is also added into the predictions to ensure that upsets happen rather than the best teams in the league winning every game.

The final table is the result of a prediction model simulating each game of the season and predicting the exact score it thinks every game will be.

The supercomputer then simulates every possible game in a season 10,000 times and constructs an average league table from the 10,000 simulations.

Those simulations have title favourites West Ham finishing in first place as expected, ahead of Wolves in second.

But according to their forecasts, Burnley will miss out on another Championship promotion - finishing in a play-off spot only to be defeated, with Wrexham instead claiming Wembley glory.

Southampton, Middlesbrough, Millwall and Sheffield United are also predicted to suffer play-off heartache.

Down at the other end of the table, meanwhile, Burnley’s fierce rivals Blackburn Rovers are tipped to drop to League One alongside Charlton Athletic and Lincoln City.