How Burnley's xG attack record compares to Premier League rivals after Aston Villa defeat
Burnley lost 2-1 to Aston Villa in the Premier League last time out, but what did that result do to their xG?
Despite some promising performances, a lack of attacking edge has scuppered what could have been a strong start to the season for Burnley.
The Clarets earned promotion off the back of a strong defensive performance last season, but have now conceded 15 goals in just seven games back in the top-flight, with only West Ham (16) allowing more. And in response, Scott Parker’s men have only scored seven goals of their own, which is the third-lowest amount in the Premier League. Jaidon Anthony is in fine form, scoring four goals already, but he’s the only Burnley player to score more than once up to now.
But are there signs that things will get better any time soon? To answer that question, we must look at the xG metrics.
How does Burnley’s xG for compare to the rest of the Premier League?
If anything, Burnley fans should be more worried that goals will further dry up soon. The Clarets have scored more than once in a single Premier League game on just two occasions this season, and they came in back-to-back games when they beat Sunderland 2-0 then lost 3-2 against Manchester United.
Anthony’s form has been commendable, but he has overperformed his xG by 2.02, with only Jarrod Bowen (2.1) and Moises Caicedo (2.25) enjoying a better overperformance so far. Burnley’s lack of creativity is such that they’ve generated the lowest xG of any Premier League side so far at just 5.22 - 0.88 less than nearest rivals Wolves.
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- Manchester United (14.02)
- Crystal Palace (13.85)
- Arsenal (13.7)
- Liverpool (12.92)
- Chelsea (12.28)
- Manchester City (12.25)
- Brighton (10.79)
- Everton (9.8)
- Bournemouth (9.66)
- Brentford (9.55)
- Newcastle United (9.27)
- Leeds United (8.75)
- Tottenham Hotspur (8.14)
- Fulham (8.13)
- Sunderland (8.1)
- West Ham United (7.97)
- Nottingham Forest (7.45)
- Aston Villa (6.95)
- Wolves (6.1)
- Burnley (5.22)
How much have Burnley and their Premier League rivals overperformed their xG?
As mentioned, top scorer Anthony has massively overperformed his xG, and that’s contributed to a substantial team-wide overachievement.
Burnley have outstripped their xG by 1.78 already this season, with only Tottenham Hotspur featuring higher here with 3.86. That’s in stark contrast to some of the league’s biggest underperformers, such as Crystal Palace and Manchester United on -4.85 and -7.02, respectively. Those two sides should expect major improvements in front of goal soon if current trends continue, while Burnley supporters will worry that the goals will only further dry up.
- Tottenham Hotspur (3.86)
- Burnley (1.78)
- Bournemouth (1.34)
- Manchester City (0.75)
- Chelsea (0.72)
- Arsenal (0.3)
- Liverpool (0.08)
- Brentford (-0.55)
- Brighton (-0.79)
- Everton (-0.8)
- Aston Villa (-0.95)
- Sunderland (-1.1)
- Leeds United (-1.75)
- West Ham United (-1.97)
- Wolves (-2.1)
- Fulham (-2.13)
- Nottingham Forest (-2.45)
- Newcastle United (-3.27)
- Crystal Palace (-4.85)
- Manchester United (-7.02)
While there are some slightly worrying signs, Burnley will be eyeing up their next two fixtures as big opportunities to hit the back of the net. Leeds at home and Wolves away lie in wait following the international break, with those two sides already conceding 25 goals combined in the Premier League so far. Points and goals in those fixtures are paramount for Parker’s side.