How many points do Burnley need to avoid Premier League relegation?
Burnley have given themselves hope recently, but how many points do they need to avoid relegation based on recent seasons?
Burnley have come from behind to snatch four points from their last two Premier League matches, giving them the faintest glimmer of hope that they can avoid relegation.
The Clarets looked to be sinking without a trace, but then overturned a 2-0 deficit to win 3-2 at Crystal Palace, before Zian Flemming struck in the 93rd minute to salvage a 1-1 draw away against Chelsea. Scott Parker’s men are now on 19 points, which is still eight adrift of safety, but with 11 games to go, anything can still happen. But what is a realistic points total for Burnley to aim for in their bid to avoid the drop? Here is how many points the relegated sides have accrued in each of the last five Premier League campaigns.
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How many points are needed for Premier League survival?
24/25 season
- Leicester City - 25 points
- Ipswich Town - 22 points
- Southampton - 12 points
23/24 season
- Luton Town - 26 points
- Burnley - 24 points
- Sheffield United - 16 points
22/23 season
- Leicester City - 34 points
- Leeds United - 31 points
- Southampton - 25 points
21/22 season
- Burnley - 35 points
- Watford - 23 points
- Norwich City - 22 points
20/21 season
- Fulham - 28 points
- West Bromwich Albion - 26 points
- Sheffield United - 23 points
The average number of points needed to secure Premier League safety over the above period is 30.6, or 31 when rounded up. In that scenario, Burnley would need to take another 12 points from their last 11 games. Their form over the last two games has been much-improved, but their points per game would still need to increase from 0.70 to 1.09 to reach that total - and that is bearing in mind their points per game has gone up by 0.10 in light of their last two matches. The Clarets would also be relying on West Ham only taking a maximum of six points from their final 11 games, despite taking 11 points from their last six, while Nottingham Forest in 17th are only six points short of 31. Burnley would also need a considerable swing in goal difference to ensure they overtake either side.
The highest number of points needed to stay up during this period came in 2021/22, when Burnley themselves went down on 35 points. The Clarets still have to face the likes of Manchester City, Aston Villa and Arsenal before the end of the season, making that an incredibly ambitious target. With that in mind, home matches against Brentford, Bournemouth and Brighton are now must-win, as are away trips to rivals like Nottingham Forest, Leeds United and Wolves. And even then, Parker will be left praying for a miracle elsewhere.