While the gap is still a large one, points deductions hanging over both Everton and Nottingham Forest means it could be an intriguing end to the season for Vincent Kompany’s men.
5. Aston Villa
Unai Emery's men have a 46.8% chance of finishing fourth, so the race for a Champions League spot looks to be going down to the wire. Photo: Justin Setterfield
6. Man Utd
The statistics say Erik ten Hag's side have a 46.7% chance of finishing in 6th place. Photo: Michael Regan
7. Newcastle
It's been a disappointing campaign for Eddie Howe's side after the highs of last year, but they're still backed to clinch European qualification. Photo: Alex Pantling
8. Chelsea
Mauricio Pochettino's men have stayed in 10th for much of the campaign, but the numbers say they could move up a couple of positions. Photo: Mike Hewitt