Expert analysts have been crunching the numbers with the help of their SPI (Soccer Power Index) rating system and various metrics in order to project the final standings for the 2022-23 term in England’s second tier.
The formula is complicated, but thorough, it's a matrix of possibilities and probabilities, which are then run through Monte Carlo simulations to play out each league’s season 20,000 times using those forecasts.
You can check out all FiveThirtyEight’s methodologies here.
Two of the sides relegated from the Premier League last season are expected to clinch the automatic promotion spots and regain their top flight status while two of the newly-promoted teams are being tipped to make an immediate return to League One.
Scroll through our gallery to see how the division could pan out.
21. Hull City
Predicted points: 54. Goal difference: -14. SPI: 36.9. Chances of promotion: 3%. Chances of making play-offs: 7%. Chances of relegation: 23%. Photo: George Wood
22. Reading
Predicted points: 53. Goal difference: -17. SPI: 35.9. Chances of promotion: 3%. Chances of making play-offs: 6%. Chances of relegation: 24%. Photo: Ryan Pierse
23. Wigan Athletic
Predicted points: 50. Goal difference: -21. SPI: 33.8. Chances of promotion: 2%. Chances of making play-offs: 5%. Chances of relegation: 31%. Photo: Michael Regan
24. Rotherham United
Predicted points: 48. Goal difference: -24. SPI: 32.3. Chances of promotion: 1%. Chances of making play-offs: 4%. Chances of relegation: 35%. Photo: Catherine Ivill