Opinion: Burnley's relegation still hurts despite long being inevitable

There was a sombre, yet appreciative mood among those supporters still left in the ground at full time last night as the players trudged around the pitch, shoulders drooped and heads bowed.

This latest defeat, Burnley’s 22nd from 34 games, wasn’t the problem. The damage had long been inflicted before Manchester City came to town.

If anything, Burnley performed well and deserve credit for pushing Pep Guardiola’s side all the way. After a frantic first 10 minutes or so, they contained City well and caused some problems of their own when they got in behind their backline.

But alas, even if they had stolen an unlikely point late on, it would have only prolonged the agony for another week. This has been a relegation long in the making.

Inquest

In fact, they’ve been chasing their tails ever since they were putting the finishing touches to last season’s remarkable 100-point promotion.

The departures of James Trafford, CJ Egan-Riley and Josh Brownhill – Burnley’s best three players last season, Maxime Esteve aside – left Scott Parker’s side behind the eight-ball.

It only served to add further pressure on their summer recruitment, which was already going to be massive, just as it is for any newly-promoted team to get right.

While Leeds and, more to the point, Sunderland got their transfer business absolutely right, Burnley’s hasn’t gone to plan.

There is a slight bit of revisionism in that claim, which is also said with the benefit of hindsight. Most of those of a Burnley persuasion were pretty happy with the club’s recruitment last summer, but it’s long since been clear they made one punt too many that just haven’t worked out.

While Trafford’s replacement Martin Dubravka has performed pretty well, Axel Tuanzebe and Armando Broja haven’t been able to shift their injury-prone tags. Florentino Luis and Loum Tchaouna, both purchased for pretty hefty fees, certainly by Burnley’s standards, haven’t had the desired effect either. Others have done okay in fleeting moments, but ‘okay’ isn’t quite good enough.

Elsewhere on the recruitment front, Burnley were keen to learn the lessons from their relegation under Vincent Kompany, where they were unable to tie down the loan stars that helped them get back to the top flight in the first place (Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Ian Maatsen, Nathan Tella and so forth).

This time around, Bashir Humphreys, Jaidon Anthony, Marcus Edwards and Zian Flemming were all made permanent Burnley players after playing important roles in getting the Clarets back to the Premier League.

While it was important business to not weaken themselves any further, it left little in the kitty for further quality.

For those that did arrive, Burnley looked to go down the experienced route, bringing in Dubravka and Kyle Walker, which was a total 180 to the Kompany approach of buying young and buying potential. Neither strategy has worked out.

Where did it go wrong?

Saying that, the season actually started well, with Burnley collecting 10 points from their opening 10 games, in line with their own point-per-game survival target. Home wins against fellow newly-promoted sides Sunderland and Leeds were crucial, while a dramatic last-gasp victory at Wolves brought further hope.

But since then, the points return has been pitiful, with a further 10 points being achieved – and I use that term loosely – from the subsequent 24 games.

While the Clarets clearly haven’t been good enough this season, it would have been intriguing to see how the remainder of the campaign had played out had Burnley held on for a win at West Ham at the start of November, a game which turned out to be a key turning point in their season.

Had they won, as they probably ought to have done, it would have sent them six points clear of the relegation zone. As it turned out, they’ve since only gone backwards, and at an alarming rate.

Parker was furious after that game, which took me by surprise given his Burnley side actually played pretty well that day. But perhaps he realised just what a missed opportunity it was.

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On the topic of Parker, who clearly holds an uncertain future, I’ve been a little uncomfortable with the abuse that’s come his way this season.

Criticism and scrutiny is fine, but it’s become far too personal at times. While Vincent Kompany got away relatively scot-free two years ago, aside from one afternoon at Selhurst Park, Parker has taken the lion’s share of the blame – and then some.

This isn’t a defence of Parker, by the way. He’s overseen a poor season and I’m sure he’s well aware he’s fortunate to still be in a job, given that run of seven straight defeats in winter and the miserable run of no win in 16.

Even now, Burnley have won just one of their last 25. It’s not controversial to acknowledge most other clubs would have acted long before now.

But I also don’t think he’s the only man to blame, in fact he said as much himself earlier this week when I asked him where the fingers ought to be pointed. Not absolving himself of responsibility, but suggesting it’s a shared collective.

And yet, it’s been Parker who has taken the booing and the abuse, and you fail to see how Burnley move forwards with him still at the helm. Once you lose the fans, it’s very hard to get them back.

At times, it almost felt unkind not to put him out of his misery. He deserves credit though for always fronting up and bearing the brunt of the fans’ ire, even if you don’t always agree with what he has to say. It would have been nice to see others taking the same approach.

There is an uncomfortable truth for Parker though, in that the narrative surrounding him – excellent at getting clubs up from the Championship, but not good enough to keep them in the Premier League – is borne out by the statistics, winning just 13 of the 86 games he’s taken charge of (giving him a 15 per cent win ratio) with Fulham, Bournemouth and now Burnley.

Tactically, there’s something to be said that his possession-heavy approach is clearly effective in the Championship with a talented squad at his disposal. But in the top flight, among the elite, he’s not quite had the answers. Are his teams high pressing? Do they counter? Do they rely on set pieces? Can they sustain a low block? The answer to all four questions has to be ‘no’. But has he had the players at his disposal to be welded to such a clear way of playing?

The biggest issue this season, away from the clear lack in quality, has been Burnley’s failure to back up last season’s record-breaking defensive solidity.

They’ve flipped from conceding just 16 goals and keeping 30 clean sheets in the second tier to conceding more goals than any other side this term, at an average of two per game. They’ve been porous and too easy to get at.

While they’ve actually done okay in terms of goals scored – not amazing by any stretch, but okay – they’ve left themselves needing to score two or three to win a game, which just isn’t realistic, nor sustainable.

A move at the start of the campaign to a back five clearly didn’t work and since then, Parker has been scrambling with formations and team selections. But the more things changed, the more they stayed the same.

What next?

So here we are, Burnley find themselves in this familiar position, suffering relegation for a third straight season at this level.

The Clarets famously bounced back in style on the previous two occasions under Kompany and Parker, but can they do it a third?

You wouldn’t back against them, although the Championship does look like it will be particularly competitive next season. But Burnley know exactly what they’re doing in the second tier. They’re a bit of a cheat code, losing just five of their last 115 games at that level.

But that success shouldn’t be taken for granted and there will be plenty of Clarets fans waking up this morning apprehensive about what lies ahead.

What happens the year they don’t manage to get back up straight away? After all, if you constantly yo-yo, eventually the string will snap.

Will it be another summer of constant change and turnover? Do they have the assets to bring in the required cash? Will the squad be unrecognisable once again come next August? Who will be the man in the dugout? These are all questions that have to be answered.

Burnley fans will be yearning for a return to the stability of the Dyche years. Will we ever see a return to those heady days? Perhaps not. But Burnley simply must find the formula to end the current trend.

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