Revealed! The points tally Burnley will need to reach to secure Premier League survival

The Clarets have hit a little bit of a slump in recent weeks, and are winless in their last three league outings after having picked up impressive victories over high-flying Aston Villa and defending champions Liverpool.

Still, the Turf Moor outfit now sit eight points clear of the relegation zone with 16 matches left to play.

Their survival cause is undoubtedly aided by the fact that Fulham, West Brom, and Sheffield United have struggled to put together any kind of meaningful or sustained run of form this season.

The Clarets are in a relatively strong position going into the final leg of their campaign, but you can never rule out an improbable great escape from one of the three sides beneath.

With that in mind, we’ve ran the numbers to see what points tally should see Sean Dyche’s men to safety this term, and to figure out the best way that they can reach that total.

How many points will be enough to avoid relegation?

It goes without saying that there is no hard and fast rule on how many points will actually be enough come the end of the season.

No two relegation battles are the same, and the 2020/21 campaign in particular has been a topsy-turvy affair to say the least.

What we can do, however, is look back through the history books to determine a points tally that is most likely to ensure survival.

Over the past decade, Premier League clubs who have finished 18th in the table have recorded points totals of 34, 34, 33, 34, 37, 35, 33, 36, 36, and 39, stretching all the way back to the 2010/11 campaign.

As such, anything above those tallies in any of those given seasons would have been enough to secure survival.

By adding one point to each of those totals and dividing it by 10, we reach an average of 36.1.

Goal difference notwithstanding, that means Premier League sides, on average, have had to win 37 points to ensure their top flight status over the past decade.

The only two occasions in the past 10 years in which 37 points wouldn’t have guaranteed safety came in 2010/11, when Birmingham City picked up 39 points and finished 18th, and in 2015/16, when Newcastle United reached 37 points with a goal difference of -21.

What do Burnley need to do to reach 37 points?

The Clarets are currently on 23 points with 22 games played, meaning that they need to take 14 points from their last 16 matches.

Four wins and a couple of draws would be enough to do it, or an average of 1.14 points per game. Burnley’s current PPG sits at 1.05.

In terms of clashes that will be earmarked as winnable, Dyche’s side still have matches against a number of teams in the bottom half of the table to come.

The Turf Moor club still have to face, Crystal Palace, West Brom, Arsenal, Southampton, Newcastle, Wolves, Sheffield United, and Fulham twice.