Burnley's xG compared to Premier League rivals and where it's going wrong for Scott Parker's side
Where do Burnley stand in the Premier League when it comes to Expected Goals?
Things are going from bad to worse for Burnley, whose losing streak extended to seven games as they went down 3-2 at home to Fulham on Saturday evening.
The Clarets had made a solid start to life back in the Premier League, but that now feels like a distant memory as Scott Parker’s men fall to defeat after damaging defeat. There were some signs of life against the Cottagers, with Burnley scoring twice in a match for the first time in five games and only the sixth time in the Premier League this season. And even at 3-1 down, they didn’t let their heads drop, with Oliver Sonne’s strike to halve the deficit coming in the 86th minute.
However, defensive solidity has abandoned Burnley, while overall, their attack has looked worryingly blunt.
Burnley xG compared to Premier League rivals
- Manchester United - 32.96
- Manchester City - 30.96
- Arsenal - 30.73
- Liverpool - 30.19
- Chelsea - 29.38
- Crystal Palace - 27.97
- Brentford - 26.84
- Brighton - 25.16
- Bournemouth - 24.83
- Leeds United - 24.4
- Newcastle United - 22.7
- Everton - 21.08
- Nottingham Forest - 21.07
- Fulham - 19.5
- Aston Villa - 19.07
- West Ham United - 18.41
- Tottenham Hotspur - 18.33
- Sunderland - 16.57
- Burnley - 16.29
- Wolves - 13.73
Per WhoScored, Burnley have generated just 16.29 Expected Goals so far this season. Only Wolves have a worse record, generating 13.73 xG as they sit bottom of the table with just two points from 16 games. Sunderland aren’t too far ahead on 16.57. However, the Black Cats have compensated with an excellent defensive record, conceding just 17 goals - only four sides have conceded fewer - compared to Burnley’s 33.
But perhaps most worrying for Burnley is the fact that they’ve actually overperformed their xG, scoring 18 goals so far. That is partially because two of their goals have come from outside the box, with Loum Tchaouna and Zian Flemming dispatching impressive efforts from distance against Leeds United and Wolves, respectively. The Clarets have also scored three headed goals, which traditionally carry a lower xG value due to their higher technical difficulty. All of this suggests that while things are already bad, they could actually get much worse if Burnley stop managing spectacular strikes or if they start missing their mark in the air.
Scott Parker will surely look to address this attacking issue in the January transfer window, especially given Burnley are still only six points from safety, with matches against a host of relegation rivals still to come.
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What next for Burnley?
Burnley must try to quickly pick themselves up off the canvas as they face a busy end to 2025. The Clarets travel to Bournemouth on Saturday, before rounding out the year with two home games against Everton and Newcastle United. Despite the difficult nature of all three fixtures, Parker will be desperate to see his side pick up at least a couple of much-needed positive results. In fact, it’s vital that Burnley do so, considering they begin 2026 away at Brighton, before fixtures against Manchester United (H), Liverpool (A), and Tottenham Hotspur (H) - with an FA Cup tie against Millwall at Turf Moor also in the mix.