BBC pundit & ex-winger knows what will decide relegation battle between Burnley and West Ham
Burnley lost 3-2 to West Ham on Saturday, and one BBC pundit believes he knows what will decide their relegation scrap.
Burnley’s fate in the Premier League relegation battle could be decided by one key skill.
That’s according to former Chelsea, Everton and Scotland winger Pat Nevin, who has been assessing the fallout of the Clarets’ 3-2 defeat away at West Ham United on Saturday. Burnley took the lead in the 35th minute at the London Stadium, before a Callum Wilson strike just before half-time levelled the scores. After the break, substitutes Tomas Soucek and Kyle Walker-Peters sealed the game for the Hammers, rendering Josh Cullen’s late strike nothing more than a consolation.
The result sees the two sides draw level on 10 points after 11 games, with Burnley staying just outside the relegation zone on goal difference heading into the latest international break.
Pat Nevin highlights potential key factor in relegation battle
Analysing Saturday’s game for BBC Sport, Nevin admitted it was not one for the purists, despite the high scoreline. However, it was one that was ultimately decided by the goalscoring instincts of Wilson and Soucek - with Nevin highlighting this as a possible deciding factor in the relegation battle as a whole, with Burnley short of natural goalscorers at present.
“It is not often you go to a match that ends 3-2 with a last-minute goal and leave thinking, that really was not very good,” said Nevin.
“I have a particular liking for West Ham fans - they are down to earth, are not entitled and always welcoming - but that is where the plaudits stopped after their narrow win against Burnley. “Granted, Jarrod Bowen is a class act when on form, Crysencio Summerville is a livewire, and Mateus Fernandes was the best player on the pitch, but that still is not enough.
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“However, they do have a couple of players who know how to get some easy goals. Callum Wilson is a classic poacher, and Tomas Soucek likewise gets his fair share by regularly loitering with intent in the area. “During my career, I played with a world-class finisher in John Aldridge and asked him how he managed to get between 30 and 40 goals almost every season.
“His answer was infuriatingly simple: ‘Get in between the posts and go where the defenders aren't.’ “I took that on board and scored 19 goals that season from the wing.
“This one little ability may well be the difference between Burnley going down and West Ham staying up because in terms of quality play, there is precious little between them as they fight to survive.”
Who are Burnley’s biggest goal threats and do they need to sign a striker?
Burnley’s 14 goals scored so far is mid-table among that particular metric, but most worrying is the manner in which they’ve scored and who they’re relying on. The Clarets have overperformed their xG by 4.3 according to WhoScored, with only Tottenham Hotspur overperforming by more (4.82). Two of their goals have come outside the box, meaning they’re scoring at a statistically unsustainable rate at present.
Jaidon Anthony is Burnley’s top goalscorer at present with four strikes, but they all came within his first six appearances of the season, followed by an ongoing five-game drought. More recently, Zian Flemming has emerged as a threat for Scott Parker, netting three times in his last three Premier League outings - following an earlier strike against Cardiff in the EFL Cup - including a brace in the 3-2 away win at Wolves.
However, summer arrival Armando Broja has struggled to stay fit and is yet to score, while Zeki Amdouni is also sidelined. Veteran Ashley Barnes, meanwhile, has featured in just seven minutes of Premier League football this season. Burnley may relieve their striker troubles in January after once again being linked with Norwich City’s Josh Sargent.