Verdict: Burnley defy the underlying stats once again to find a way past resilient Portsmouth

For a second home game running, it appeared Burnley would be frustrated in their attempts to notch another three points.

Last time it was the 10 men of local rivals Blackburn Rovers that kept Scott Parker’s men at bay with a rearguard display, where they sat deep and cut off any pockets of space.

The Clarets didn’t have an answer on that day and for large swathes of Saturday’s encounter, it was a similar story as the frustrated hosts passed and passed and passed, but struggled to find a way through.

Burnley remained patient though and got their reward right at the death courtesy of Josh Brownhill’s last-gasp winner, which sparked a collective sigh of relief from the Turf Moor crowd alongside the jubilant celebrations.

The fact that Burnley found a way to win when they weren’t at their best, just as they did at Elland Road last time out, bodes very, very well.

Defying the numbers

But is there also some cause for concern? Well perhaps concern isn’t the right word to use, but caution.

The underlying data behind Burnley’s start to the season suggests their results - four wins, a draw and one defeat - is an overperformance.

So far this term the Clarets have averaged just 3.5 shots on target per game, the 17th best record in the Championship. Yet they’ve scored 13 goals in six games, the joint highest of any team in the division, so they’ve clearly been clinical.

Burnley have struggled to create clear-cut chances so far this season, yet they’re still finding a way to get the ball in the back of the net - which is an impressive trait to have. But is it sustainable?

They’ve got a collective Expected Goals (xG) of 4.8 so far, which sees them languish 21st in the table.

Of course, it goes without saying statistics don’t always tell the full story. Middlesbrough top that particular list with an xG of 11 and they sit in 12th in the table with just two wins, so you’d much rather be in Burnley’s position. But it is an interesting illustration of Burnley’s underlying performances.

The black-and-white numbers don’t take into account the context behind Burnley’s start to the season though, that being the huge turnover of players, the new signings still getting up to speed and a new style of play being implemented.

The fact that Burnley have got off to such a positive start, sitting third in the table and winning four of six, when they’ve not exactly hit their stride, can only be a good thing.

Tough test

On Saturday Parker’s men came up against a solid Pompey outfit who had endured a devilishly difficult start to the season – facing Leeds, Luton, Middlesbrough, Sunderland and West Brom in their first five games following promotion from League One.

Their winless record doesn’t tell the full story at all, because they’ve actually picked up impressive points against Leeds, Luton and Middlesbrough, and came close to doing the same against Burnley.

They came to Turf Moor with a clear, defined gameplan. To sit off the hosts, not go after them, no pressing from the front. Instead they allowed Burnley to have the ball at the back, which caused the predictable sideways passing among the two centre-backs as they probed and waited for an opening to appear.

It has to be said, it didn’t make for the most entertaining of spectacles, especially in the first-half where it was all too slow and predictable and too often they were happy to take the easy option.

But in the second-half they upped the tempo and upped the intensity, which led to Portsmouth being pinned back in their own half.

Chances were still few and far between, but you could sense the tide was turning after the visitors had edged their noses in front with a real sloppy goal to concede, as Callum Lang tapped home completely unmarked at the back post just before the half-time interval.

The game changed when Parker turned to his bench to make two changes: Jeremy Sarmiento and Zian Flemming.

It was the former, Sarmiento, who enjoyed an instant impact, curling one home with a delicious effort with his first touches of the ball having cut in from the left flank.

That’s the sort of goal that defies xG statistics and maybe explains why Burnley have started the season so well, because they have individual quality that can turn a game at any given moment.

Finding a way

Even then, after an initial wave of momentum after the equaliser, Burnley soon found themselves being frustrated again as Portsmouth played for time and wound the clock down.

The referee appeared to be buying it, signalling for soft free-kicks and breaking up the natural flow of the game, which soon became stop-start.

But it was beautifully ironic that Portsmouth’s hearts were broken during the eight minutes of stoppage time, only added on because of their own ‘time management’.

It was a strange goal in its execution too, with Brownhill’s low, bobbly shot somehow creeping over the line as former Burnley keeper Will Norris seemingly watched on without even diving, perhaps wrongfooted by the skipper’s effort.

The joyful Clarets fans and their beloved players didn’t care one bit though, the celebrations soon took over. There was a palpable sense of relief.

Yes, the Clarets made hard work of it. But perhaps this is something we should all get used to.